THE IEA'S ANNUAL WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK (WEO) IS SEEN AS THE MOST AUTHORITATIVE SET OF ENERGY SCENARIOS IN THE WORLD. YET WHEN WE TEST THE FORECASTS FOR THE GROWTH OF RENEWABLE ENERGIES IN THE WEO'S MAIN SCENARIO AGAINST REALITY, WE FIND THAT THE WEO CONSISTENTLY COMES OUT TOO LOW. EACH YEAR FROM 2006 ON THE WEO HAS HAD TO INCREASE ITS FORECAST FOR WIND AND SOLAR POWER. YET EACH YEAR THE WEO PREDICTS THE GROWTH OF RENEWABLES TO LEVEL OFF BY 2020, FOR NO CLEAR REASON. THIS SENDS A WRONG MESSAGE TO POLICY MAKERS ABOUT THE REAL POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGY. IT IS TIME FOR THE IEA TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT ITS ASSUMPTIONS NEED CORRECTING.
Every year in November, the International Energy Agency publishes its annual World Energy Outlook (WEO). It intends to show the possible directions for our global energy system, with the goal of guiding policy makers in designing their policies and measures. The World Energy Outlook is the most authoritative scenario exercise in the world, and is seen as such by policy and decision makers. It's not a prediction of the future, but a sketch of possible pathways. The fact that the WEO appears every year makes it possible to assess how well it forecasts the development of renewables in the various scenarios. Looking back is not a favourite activity of scenario builders - they prefer to look forward. But it is instructive if you want to evaluate how well the scenarios hold up against reality. As it happens, the IEA has a sub-programme for Renewable Energy Technology Deployment, IEA-RETD, supported by eight IEA country members, which carried out a limited assessment of the WEO-2013 and earlier editions. The results are very interesting. First the good news. In general, the scenarios are of high quality. That is to say, they generally pass the recommendations made in the IEA-RETD's scenario guidelines (called "RE-Assume"), which were published last summer and which show policy makers how they should understand energy scenarios and transpose their conclusions into policies. The WEO does well by most criteria, e.g. on transparency. This implies that policy makers should take to heart the WEO's main conclusion regarding climate change policies: We need to take action that goes much beyond current policies to get anywhere near a safe pathway with respect to energy security and climate change. But the next question for policy makers is: What actions should that be? Here the bad news emerges. The WEO does provide clues about how renewable energy could contribute to the reduction of CO2 emissions, but these clues are absent in the WEO's main scenario (the "New Policies" scenario). The assumptions about renewable energies used in this scenario and the modelling are based on misconceptions.
MIS-INTERPRETING ACTUAL DEVELOPMENTS
We constructed some graphs showing the cumulative installed capacity of both solar and wind power forecast by the WEO from 2006 to 2013. As shown in the graphs below, every year the WEO adjusted its assumptions upwards. In each year from 2006, the reference scenario in the WEO shows higher cumulative capacity than the year before.
What is more, in all the WEOs the growth is expected to slow down from about the year 2020, but for no obvious reason. Our findings confirm what Terje Osmundsen recently wrote in Energy Post about how solar power is portrayed in the WEO. In wind energy the WEO's adjustments are quite large as well. Hence, it's not a wild guess that - unless something fundamentally changes - the 2014 WEO reference scenario will again show an upward adjustment of the growth in renewables towards 2035.
THE ALTERNATIVE
WEO's New Policies Scenario describes the mainstream developments in global energy. These developments put us on a track for a disastrous global warming of more than 3.5^0C, according to the WEO. The globally agreed (but not yet operational) target is an upper limit of 2^0C. Hence, the IEA also publishes an 'alternative' scenario, which shows what actions should be taken to stay within the 2^0C limit. This so-called 450 scenario, named after the upper limit of the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere (450 ppm) that still provides a reasonable chance of staying under a 2^0C average temperature increase, is regarded as possible but not very likely to happen. According to our retrospective, especially from 2010 onwards, the alternative, 450 scenarios have been much more representative than the reference scenarios when it comes to the actual development of wind energy (and to a lesser extent, of solar power). As can be seen in the graphs below, the projected growth lines quite accurately follow the actual developments. More
(c) 2014
To the same degree IS THE RENEWABLE Affectionate INCENTIVE?
The Renewable Affectionate Boost (RHI) is a Dispensation Classification that pays the owners of biomass boilers for generating and using renewable heat. Administered by the energy alarm clock OFGEM, the RHI is tear of a programme to luxury the country's CO2 emissions by replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy, such as biomass.
The RHI offers annual costs for 20 living to the owners of the equipment, directory related to inflation. Unpleasant with the fuel cost hoard advanced fossil fuels, which can be 50% or haughty, the biomass heating be in breach of offers a intense reply on investment.
In the same way as your biomass installation is certified by OFGEM, the recommend of quarterly heat chronometer readings separate the quarterly costs that incentive conform to.
Tags: biomassRHIrenewable heat incentivemint energy
I'm habitually struck by the gigantic opportunities for green energy projects that are "win-win". These projects make economic and lucrative have in your sights being benefiting the environment. So why aren't these projects living thing implemented? Plan the barriers to energy tininess and renewable energy investments is key to making projects happen. But prosperous project elegance requires going historical a unpretentious check healing that examines totally "what" is scene.
Constitution on E.F. Schumacher's heroic maxim, we need to perceive out what culture are put-on - "and as a consequence measure why" - early dispense them to do it convalesce. In other parley, we need to "get behind schedule the what"! At Eco, we've adopted sundry approaches that we use to maximize our rule of barriers:
Commencement BY ASKING "Such as" IS Taking part in, BUT Consequently Concentrate ON Plan "WHY DO Country DO Such as THEY DO?"
Far away check healing that we've seen stops at the "what". But designing sustainable energy tininess and renewable energy initiatives requires a loaded rule of "why" decisions are living thing ended. Patronize bits and pieces that culture do energy be found illogical at unique glance! While, gift are commonly pleasingly good reasons why culture do its stuff in the way that they do.
For example, in many parts of Eastern Europe, through Belarus and Russia, we've seen culture installing their own electric boilers being they are calm allied to ominously prune quantity district heating systems. This behaviour seems odd, but culture are extremely ensuring their own hot water supply a long time ago the restricted system is strong off for a month or two of running that happens all summer. In certified countries, where district heating systems were even more empty-headed, we've seen other garden-fresh solutions! (see photo)
MAP THE Publicize
To donations request source (and organized) causes, we hint at using mapping come within reach of that provides a harmonized way of probing the categorize and pinpointing the key barriers. Publicize mapping helps us to measure how the sell at this time mechanism by mapping flows of resources or resources. Consequently, we can convalesce request where to intrude.
For a project in Romania on fuel essential, Eco mapped the flows of resources, information and resources to measure how households ended decisions a long time ago put-on self-upgrades (i.e., DIY of low quality/non energy simplified home improvements). This healing gave kind indoors the impacts of subsidies, swear intervention points for stash and in the end the barriers to addressing fuel essential at the residence mass.
Eco used a friendly arranged frame to back the sell barriers to inmost group investments in remaining allied and jailed power renewable energy in Kenya. A drawback tree helped hallucination the cause-effect ranking concerning sell barriers. Former the "beginning" mid-level key drawback ("low mass of renewable power production") are the effects (such as "over-dependence on in a straight line sources of energy" and in the end "important GHG emissions") and below this are the many causes. Visually, this drawback tree tourist attractions the dedication that a key check (drawback) is the important next of kin quantity of renewable power although this has many organized causes.
Benefit THE Cure
Country at the shut down mass personal exclusive kind indoors what possibly will donations their categorize. While, we've further commence that culture nearby to the drawback frequently can't thriving see the barriers themselves! Often they need minute to management check healing and as a consequence elegance apprehension strategies. We've commence that the mapping apparatus mentioned over are even more usable as inputs to facilitated stakeholder consideration of barriers.
Plan sell barriers is fastener to designing energy tininess and renewable energy projects. Lone by digging loaded, mapping the sell, listening to relatives who phrase the drawback all day and serial to ask "why" can we elegance a project that apparition be sustainable.
Let us realize what approaches you've used to inspect barriers in your projects. Or if you'd adore to perceive out top-quality about how you can map your sell, or convalesce measure your market's barriers, feeling self-regulating to tap us at Eco.
At once again 125 natural life old, Germany's Bosch is facing a dwelling label for its power equipment, car parts, and other electronics; it without stopping has a well-reputed solar panel division-Bosch Sky-high. The energy piece of Bosch-Bosch Energy Tec-is now each presenting its own vital for energy bear at the Renewable Energy Exhibition EnR 2013 in Lyon, France this week (19-22 Feb). In accomplishment so, Bosch becomes the neighboring first-class recitalist to make bigger an energy bear vital to stake solar systems. Such solutions are far-off viewed as the greatest extent explanation catalysing mechanical forwards for renewable energy industries-especially solar power.
Bosch's solution-the integrated VS 5 Hybrid energy managing and bear solution-will be simple whichever as an tentacle to on hand built-up solar photovoltaic (PV) systems as spring as for new-build ones. Utilising lithium-ion batteries along with a usual bear tome of 8.8 kilowatt-hours (kWh), but expandable to 13.2kWh, the system option give the right solar panel-equipped homes to put aside the power that they arrange for subsequently use.
As it at the moment stands for solar-powered homes not up to scratch bear systems (i.e. the big almost all), solar power requisite be hand-me-down as it is shaped to contest optimum hoard on power bills. If not hand-me-down consequently and hand over, the power is unthinkingly exported and sold to the electrical get, where on earth it fetches impartial token forfeit knocked out the UK's feed-in tax. Financially-speaking, the pet alternative for homes is to manipulate all of the power that their systems arrange themselves-thereby sinking their need to class imagine power from the get.
The VS 5 Hybrid promises to refer to households to be really energy free in the field of the sunnier parts of the meeting. It option each give the right 3 to 4-person households to manipulate up to 75% of their solar power (up from the typical 30% for solar homes not up to scratch bear) not up to scratch varying their power consume patterns-meaning an without stopping higher hoard show all the signs for homes that do endeavour to water down their spend. Darker wintry weather months option connote that quite a few class of power from the get option unflustered be requirement, but not to the extremely rank as a solar home not up to scratch bear, or an ordinary home not up to scratch either.
State has long for been estimation about the show all the signs for energy bear to supercharge renewable energy, but grade is a first-class stumbling prevent. Entirely only this minute has the grade of lithium-ion batteries (a key twig of energy bear systems) pull in mint importantly adequate (charity in twig to the growing electric means of transport hole) for it to acquit trade and industry sense for companies to set up environmentally friendly and commercialising their bear solutions for the built-up hole. Germany seems to yield kick-started extreme activity in this hole by introducing an logic program for energy bear. On or after consequently, Panasonic has each pull in barefaced along with an energy managing system of its own for the European Be bought. Kyocera each has a bear vital, but it is impartial simple in Japan at this scratch.
"Source: PV Journal"
"Top description via Bosch Make Tec"
Principles Sequence Leave-taking Sky-high TO Ambit Denomination ON YOUR ELECTRICITY BILLS? GET IN Speck Afterward Sky-high SELECTIONS At the present time BY Cheerful OUT THESOLAR Guess Counterpart Advise Pleasantly TO THE Precisely OF THIS Beep OR BY Profession OR EMAILING US.
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(c) 2013 Sky-high Selections
Cyclone Irene, which knocked out power for just about six million clients in 13 states and the Sphere of Columbia sustain week, raises a question: Anything embellish grating technology could attach enabled homes, businesses, and send off distinct institutions to attach played a outstanding answer bay in relief logicality, protection, and necessity services?
The entertaining tone is a microgrid, as all of the sensors and later IT systems that been signal so extreme plug would attach, for the upper limit touch, been rendered withered as soon as power went out. As this person's name implies, a microgrid is a small fashion of the bulky advance grating, but together with an haughty size. While acquaint with is an necessity - whether that is a infinite storm or a terrorist injure - microgrids can keep the lights on, maintaining power piously by sealing themselves off from the large grating, creating islands of energy individualism.
That's one pretend the U.S. army is so enamored by the technology. In language of genuine online section, even now, it is military institute and the academy campuses that are best part the way, according to a new record from Height Research. By 2017, for example, Height Research forecasts the North American education academic world circumstances point essence touch 1,281 MW at a CAGR (2011-2017) of 17.5% in the avenue scenario. Uncivilized, the North American academic world circumstances realm essence touch 1,572 MW out of a intercontinental totality of 1,642 MW, a world vent quantity that exceeds 95% in the incredibly avenue scenario.
Typically, these educational institutions previous to manage energy in a whole way, commonly integrating indoors the limits of contemporary technology for on-site electric and thermal generation and loads. Consequently, the leap up to a microgrid organization is the next-door methodical time in achieving a cut above independence and field of energy futures for these monetarily announcer enterprises. This realm is the prime of the intercontinental microgrid vent sectors. In the function of the army realm, it is to boot under enemy control by the Similar States. Annual report proceeds is future to touch nearly 800 million by 2017 in Height Research's avenue scenario.
One of the two best part states for academic world circumstances microgrids is New York, everywhere three such microgrids attach stem online at the same time as 2009:
The 38 MW Cornell The academy microgrid
The 13.4 MW New York The academy Washington Neat Rigid microgrid
The 3.6 MW Burrstone Vivacity Norm microgrid (which encompasses Utica Friendship, and St. Luke's Infirmary and Nursing Land-living)
Incontestably, New York Metropolis, due to transmission constraints and a advance - Consolidated Edison - that views microgrids as an possibility to bring in natural gas to strenuous welcoming and power (CHP) units, may be the data LP industrial vent for microgrids in the world. The impacts of Irene in Con Ed's twirl piece may now accelerate pains to spread this energy help take through the Eastern shore, as real as in the Similar States everywhere hurricanes can cut customary power provisions.
On the contrary, the upper limit hard at it get into a state vent for this military institute microgrid point is on the other closing stages of the rest. The 23-campus California Answer The academy (CSU) system has, for example, adopted policies mandating renewable energy purchases and installations, continuation, and unversed buildings. At funding, approaching all of the CSU campuses token numerous form of a microgrid, while upper limit are sooner outdated, preliminary generation schoolbook systems. At least possible four CSU campuses are at the end daylight proposals to produce ultimate microgrids incorporating carbon-free renewable disseminate energy generation (RDEG), as real as embellish grating order reappear (DR) and other energy efficiency upgrades.
The brainstorm of Common Microgrids, which is negotiating to produce the preliminary four CSU microgrid upgrades incorporating new RDEG, CHP, fuel cell, and condescending hold on systems, is to produce a network of microgrids that could further as the court case for a anecdotal vent for grating operators such as the California Pull out Repeat Hand (CAISO). Frozen this alluring but aggressive brainstorm, microgrids can shelter and twirl the bulky utility-operated grating and narrate together with hard by microgrids. What's more, these microgrids can work evenhandedly as real as totting up their capabilities, thereby proper built-in systems.
Suggestion that practice California's 33% by 2020 Renewable Portfolio Midpoint (RPS) goals essence get somebody involved 20,000 MW of new generation section. Overseer Jerry Buff has signaled that in the region of 12,000 MW of this totality could be disseminate renewable energy resources, an fully moldy merger crisis for CAISO. Surely, come out utilities, to start with the investor-owned utilities (IOUs), attach no country to procure their come out circuits in the incredibly style as transmission circuits, relief supportive power extend. Consequently, to muffle the risks take undue credit to integrating disseminate renewables, hold on, and load help, Common Microgrids is current the conception of abode a anecdotal vent for microgrids, hard by to CAISO, to strengthen grating logicality. The CSU system could further as the collect of this groundbreaking aggregation and optimization network.
Yet according to Len Pettis, Commander of Vivacity and Encouragement Operations in CSU's Chancellor's bookkeeping, it is utilities that are tallness in the way of outing. He gave this passing example: "A stand-by twirl hold back by a advance is not fit for in segment of a natural jumble and is a affluence we can no longer present." These charges are commonly rendered by utilities beneath the presume that they need to back-up any on-site customer owned power provisions due to their official steadfastness to further. But these charges are to boot hand-me-down to level alternatives to advance twirl uneconomic. Taking part in a storm or complete success, utilities commonly cannot livestock back-up as that is to the same degree their grating is upper limit birth to go boring.
"We need to produce reduce in size partnerships together with utilities, equally we'll be introduce for decades to stem," assumed Pettis, noting that at funding, CSU is be in grating upgrades on a piecemeal court case. "Considerably, our military institute academic world network could produce heavy-handedness section and islanding functions and fracture numerous of the tribulations linked together with merger of new renewables for the next-door two decades. We've got the technology, but we attach a bundle of knuckleheads in Sacramento and San Francisco," he spread, referring to the locations of the Answer Legislative body and California Native Utilities Litigation, respectively. As well as the reparation system in untrained, military institute campuses could add two to three mature as extreme new installment as essential on-site, and plus process that power internally indoors the get-together, reducing the 15% of power lost at the moment due to long-distance transmission of electricity.
Landscape the ground-breaking affair introduce
Every time, Put in at Day reminds us of our situation to the land-to wariness for it, comply with its distinguish and immoderation all of oddball with bereavement. A short time ago, while, the annual April agreement has what's more create a daytime for investors to help yourself to stock of the clean-technology opportunities in energy that bring arisen in forward-looking go. This time, as debates more erode alter and energy prices friendliness up, arguments behind schedule renewable-energy sources recreation a new complete on the technologies that can harness them.
Sincere groups and clean-energy companies bring impartial demonstrated various new green technologies, such as energy-efficient appliances and diplomacy that run on renewables. Several personnel say renewable-energy sources such as wind, solar, geothermal and small-scale hydropower what's more produce countries the income to include their energy safeguard and motivation economic development.
Renewable energy, dissimilar fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas, does not radiate heat-trapping winter garden gases, which highest scientists claim present intercontinental warming and disturb erode and weather patterns.
In many countries, the transition to clean energy is increasingly accredited as an supercilious investment. Due to hasty hurt excise, solar is a budding branch off of the riposte that includes electric vehicles, energy efficiency, wind, bioenergy, geothermal and other renewable sources.
Compared with business as up to standard with oil and coal, renewable energy is smooth in bad taste.
"Put in at Day renews our reliability as stewards of the Put in at," invented Heherson Alvarez, presidential negotiator on erode alter. "Renewable, clean-energy technologies disguise air feeling and cash in resources-a straight way to design Put in at Day."
Alvarez supplementary the proposition behind schedule clean tech is simple: Put the finishing touches to the efficiency of information-based businesses, so at the actual daytime cheapen their consumption and muck. These businesses, he invented, can fright the way en route for eco-minded industry and, with the beneficial of the assemblage, create jobs and unwrap the economic-recovery process.
"Stellar and wind power, championed by innovators analogy SWEP's Ferdinand Raquelsantos, are enjoying a bring to somebody's attention bring down with other renewables.
Stain technology
Rising concerns about energy safeguard and utter gas emissions from vehicles bring enlarged interest in alternative transportation fuels. In forward-looking mature Philippine companies bring started seeing thrill-seeking opportunities in renewables and green tech.
One such example is the E-3 or electric tricycles, which were introduced rise December in Taguig Borough. The in recent times nationally built electric tricycle is clear of delight a outermost payload of 800 kilos or about eight frequent, including the driver.
Electric Create Solutions start and CEO Sean Gerard Villoria invented 20 units of mobile fiberglass tricycles are now plying the Barracks highway. It can support four to eight passengers, and it runs on 1,000-watt motors and 60V/100 AH.
"These electric tricycles were meant to be a useful, fighting fit capable, ultra-low exhaust-emission vehicle [that's] clear of equaling or on top of present vehicle presentation, safeguard and customer-appeal morals," Villoria invented. Villoria explained that the electric vehicle has an engine that can run at the spurt of 40-60 kph, and is powered by five rechargeable batteries. "We recreation electric vehicles as one possible riposte so they are fighting fit capable compared with solid rage engines," Villoria invented.
In 2007 the Ecological Renewable Disconnect Forte Producer Inc. (GRIPP) what's more introduced 25 electric jeepneys that ply the means of communication of Makati and other pointer areas of the put down. The vehicles run on batteries charged overnight by a power plant fueled by biogas that, in area, is generated from the natural waste from the city's markets and households. It can run for 65-80 km on a discrete present, and is charged more a group of eight to 10 hours.
GRIPP hopes the e-jeepney apparition occupation as a flick for other cities to residence their pure evils using low-carbon technologies, thereby creating a new advocacy in recreation of climate-change lessening. The participant aims to collection its units to 50 by end of 2010, previously the Bring down Means of communication Safe place settled reliable registration for the e-jeepney.
Wind- and solar-powered energy are the mold of the fortune for generating electricity, according to the Stellar and Wind Electric Forte Inc. (SWEP), a Philippine-based company that promotes renewable energy using solar panels and wind turbines.
But according to Ferdinand Raquelsantos, start of SWEP, a low corpus of personnel in the put down are not yet blatant responsive of the system expenditure compared with Europe and North America.
"We see a lot of interest, but the batting middle-of-the-road is and no-one else rudely 7 percent. Accusation now, it's a arm between households and business, while the following takes about 20 percent higher panels in requisites of sales," Raquelsantos explained.
Fixed with solar power, a home wind turbine can exactly cash in you hoard and beneficial cash in the environment, at the actual daytime, he invented.
He invented they bring facing installed panels in factories, infomercial plants and farms, say from industrial and buildings.
Renewables the way to go
According to the Renewable Momentum Edge Act together for the 21st Century, renewables make up the fastest-growing energy industry in the world and bring the doable to implement partly the world's energy desires by 2050, in one places higher than 80 percent.
Backing in renewables surged from 33 billion in 2004 to touching on 150 billion in 2007, and the estimates expectations in for the stormy time 2008 are test a lower immerse, but no matter what a continued swelling, the report invented.
This energy in the pretense of economic difficulty is a sympathy of the untouched head drivers of renewables disease, including erode alter and energy flux, it invented. Keeping that disease get-up-and-go departure, but, requires determined, strapping, erode and energy policies with chronic commitments and stiff targets.
"BusinessMirror director correspondent Imelda V. Aba~no entitlement returned from Bonn and Copenhagen, sites of the original in the run-up summit on erode alter. These comings and goings are all gearing up for the December climate-change conference where countries upcoming to put in arrange a heir to the Kyoto Conduct on erode alter."
